If Trump were elected and really were to follow an America-first policy, retreating from global commitments, conciliating Putin an

If Trump were elected and really were to follow an America-first policy, retreating from global commitments, conciliating Putin and allowing Russia a larger role (as he has hinted, bizarrely) then relations between states would shift in the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia would be isolated (the folly of the UK’s support for Saudi Arabia in its sectarian cold war with Iran would be even more exposed) and the Iranian regime might rejoice. But Trump has also said those things about renegotiating the Iran nuclear deal, and has run an ad campaign saying he would “cut the head off Isis and take their oil”, which, though hard to construe, sounds like more intervention rather than less. If he were elected, a lot would depend on Trump’s advisers, but that is no cause for reassurance. John Bolton, whom Trump has spoken of as a possible secretary of state, said in March 2015 in the last weeks before the nuclear deal that the US could still bomb Iran, and that bombing was the only way to stop Iran getting a nuclear weapon. Another figure close to Trump, Lt Gen Michael Flynn, made a statement in July 2016 that seemed to suggest he thought Ali Khamenei’s predecessor, Ayatollah Khomeini, was still alive and in office.
@internationalrel